Drake Maye’s MVP Odds See Major Shift Amid Battle With Matthew Stafford

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has firmly established himself as one of the top 10 passers in the NFL this season.

Maye, the second-year QB who was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, has clearly benefitted from the leadership of new head coach Mike Vrabel and the play-calling prowess of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

In his second season — the first as a full-time starter — Maye has led the Patriots to a 13-3 record and the team’s first division championship since Tom Brady’s final season with the franchise in 2019.

It also marked the first season with 13 or more wins since 2017, which was also the last time New England clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC — a feat it can accomplish again if it beats the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 and the Denver Broncos lose to the Los Angeles Chargers.

New England’s success down the stretch has likely played a big role in where Maye stands in the current MVP race.

Maye Suddenly Surging in NFL MVP Odds

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford has had a career resurgence at age 37.

He entered Week 17 leading the league in touchdown passes (40), and he ranked second to Maye in passer rating (112.1) and he was fourth in passing yards (4,179).

But in the first half of the Ram’s “Monday Night Football” matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, Stafford played his worst half of football and may have cost himself the MVP award.

Stafford put up a lowly 30.1 passer rating while completing 9 of 17 passes for just 96 yards and 2 interceptions, one of which was returned 34 yards by safety Jessie Bates III for a pick-6 that put Atlanta up 14-0. The Rams trailed 21-0 heading into halftime.

During the intermission, Maye (-340) actually soared past Stafford (+280) in MVP odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Before the Rams-Falcons game, Stafford had the best odds in the MVP race (-380) with Maye a distant second (+300).

Comparing the two QBs head-to-head, Maye has bested Stafford in most major statistical categories including record (13-3 to 11-4), completion percentage (71.7 to 65.7), yards per pass attempt (8.9 to 8.1), passer rating (112.9 to 112.1), rushing yards (409 to -2), and rushing touchdowns (4 to 0).

Conversely, Stafford edges out Maye in three categories — passing yards per game (278.8 to 262.7), touchdown passes (40 to 30), and fewer interceptions thrown (5 to 8).

Maye Playing His Best Football When It Matters Most

In New England’s 42-10 win over the New York Jets on Sunday, Maye had his best performance as a pro.

He completed 90.5% of his passes (19 of 21) and threw for 256 yards and a career-high 5 touchdowns with zero interceptions. He nearly finished with a perfect passer rating (157.0), and he increased his league-leading completion percentage to 71.5.

Maye also showed up big two weeks ago against the Baltimore Ravens, throwing for 380 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception in a 28-24 victory that got the Pats’ season back on track after a disappointing 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills the previous week.

He’s totaled 250 yards passing or more in 12 of New England’s 16 games this season, and he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in 11 of them as well.

As red-hot as Maye has been lately, it might take a wild Week 18 performance from Stafford to dethrone him as the MVP favorite.

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