The Seahawks are getting right at the right time
UNCW @ NC State – Tuesday, April 29th @ 6:00pm (ACCNX | Stats)
Projected Starters: SO LHP Cooper Consiglio — SO RHP Bromley Thornton
Alright, this is likely my last chance to reference it this year, so let’s take a look at the preseason guess at how UNCW would be:
UNCW is set up to continue the excellent run they’ve had so far under Randy Hood. Since Hood took over for long-time coach Mark Scalf, his Seahawks squads have captured two regular season CAA titles and two conference tournament titles, making a pair of NCAA Regional appearances the last two years thanks to those CAA tourney championships. This year’s team should be right in line to make that three in a row.
Tanner Thach is an all-everything left-handed hitting machine. He’ll lead an offense that should be close in productivity to last year’s 40-win group. Brock Wills, Aiden Evans, Kevin Jones, and Alec DeMartino also return and should each step forward this year, while Bryan Arendt again returns to manage things behind the dish. Arendt had a down year with the bat last season and is a safe bet for some regression towards the mean in 2025. What help they can get from the transfer and freshmen class could make this into the CAA’s best lineup.
Zane Taylor will be the staff ace, but the team has to find another two arms to fill out the weekend rotation. Connor Marshburn should slot into the closer role if he doesn’t get a look in the rotation. DII transfer Kristopher Morris was a two-way stud at West Virginia State but will focus solely on pitching for UNCW. I’d expect he takes one of those weekend spots.
The lineup will hold it’s own and if the pitching staff comes together, this group could be good enough to snag an at-large NCAA Regional bid even without a CAA title in hand.
NCAA Tournament Bound?: Maybe
Okay, not my best work – especially on that line about being able to get an NCAA at-large berth – but maybe (get it?!) the Seahawks prove me right in the end. After all, this is a group that’s won their last four conference series and sits in 2nd place in the conference (4.0 games back of 1st place Northeastern) with three weeks remaining.
That at-large NCAA bid went out the window with their 12-13 non-conference record (they’re 2-7 in Quad 1 games). The non-conference strength of schedule (7th nationally) is what led me to say that UNCW may work their way into a Regional even without a conference title in hand, but that simply hasn’t materialized. Still, this group has wins over Georgia (RPI #2), Southern Miss (#31), Liberty (#75), Charlotte (#77), and East Carolina (#79). It’s by no means a bad team, and plenty capable of taking down any opponent.
The UNCW lineup as a whole is hitting .269/.377/.423, 65 2B, 48 HR, 12.0 BB%, 22.2 K%, 54-67 SB, and it’s been getting hot of late. Over the last six games (in which UNCW has a 5-1 record), the offense has put up 67 runs (11.2 runs/game), a clear outpacing of their 6.7 runs/game average on the season. Again, the team is getting hot at the right time.
That lineup centers, as expected, around JR 1B Tanner Thach (.324/.407/.495, 8 2B, 7 HR, 9.0 BB%, 15.2 K%, 5-6 SB). After 42 homers over his first two years in Wilmington and with two successful summers in the Cape Cod League, Thach entered the year as a projected 1st round pick with his lefty power bat. The power hasn’t quite shown up this year like it has previously which has dropped him to a 2nd rounder, but the potential is still there in the 6’4, 220 pound frame, and he shouldn’t have to wait long to hear his name called this summer.
The big find for UNCW’s offense has been JUCO transfer SO 3B Trevor Lucas (.298/.426/.528, 10 2B, 9 HR, 16.7 BB%, 17.7 K%, 3-4 SB). The other aspect behind the surge of late has been the return of JR LF Brock Wills (.406/.517/.594, 4 2B, 3 HR, 14.8 BB%, 18.2 K%, 6-8 SB) who missed an entire month of the season across February and March and has been on a tear of late.
The question around the weekend rotation has been answered with resounding authority. SR RHP Zane Taylor (8-1, 2.59 ERA, 66.0 IP, 3.1 BB%, 26.7 K%) has been the ace as expected – and even a touch better than expected – but the emergency of FR RHP Cam Bagwell (7-2, 3.08 ERA, 64.1 IP, 3.9 BB%, 16.7 K%) and SO RHP Connor Marshburn (3-2, 3.15 ERA, 54.1 IP, 11.3 BB%, 21.3 K%) have given the Seahawks a starting rotation capable of carrying them through the CAA Tournament.
If you’re thinking the bullpen is the issue, you’d be wrong… or at least half wrong. There’s quality, just not depth. JR RHP Trace Baker (3-1, 4 SV, 2.25 ERA, 44.0 IP, 8.3 BB%, 27.2 K%) has been outstanding, while SO RHP Cooper Allen (0-1, 1 SV, 3.82 ERA, 30.2 IP, 8.1 BB%, 31.7 K%) and JR RHP Aubrey Smith (1-3, 1 SV, 3.09 ERA, 35.0 IP, 4.7 BB%, 17.4 K%) have been great in versatile roles. There’s not a ton of quality depth behind them, which was significantly hurt by the loss of breakout JR RHP Ty Lawson (0-1, 2.87 ERA, 15.2 IP, 3.1 BB%, 25.0 K%). Lefty arms are also severely lacking with only two southpaws with more than 3.0 IP on the year, and those two have a combined 27 BB in 36.2 IP.
So maybe that prediction wasn’t so far off. The lineup is producing and holding their own while the pitching staff has come together. If the Seahawks can continue putting up runs in bunches and the starting rotation continues to be awesome and thus minimize the ask of a thin but talented bullpen (wait a minute… that sounds familiar), then the CAA better watch out come tourney time. UNCW may well find themselves in a Regional for the third straight year.