Hello again, Tigers.
When NC State and LSU met in November, NC State was very much a work in progress, especially up front. LSU took full advantage of the Pack’s inexperience there and controlled the bulk of that game, taking a lead in the first quarter that it would never relinquish. It wasn’t especially close over the last 30 minutes.
A lot has changed in the time since then—Tilda Trygger logged only five minutes in that game, for example. Mallory Collier, Lorena Awou, and Maddie Cox combined to score eight points on 3-12 shooting in 48 minutes as the Tigers dominated the paint.
Twenty-seven games later, NC State has found stability up front with Trygger and Awou emerging as their experience on the court has grown. NC State should be more competitive here, and it’s going to need to be—LSU is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and grabbed 46% of its misses in the first meeting, which cannot happen again.
The Wolfpack made just 37% of its twos, with only Saniya Rivers and Zoe Brooks making more than one shot inside the arc. The strain on the backcourt in the absence of offense up front proved to much to handle, and the result was the Pack’s second-worst offensive performance of the season.
LSU’s big three—Aneesah Morrow, Flau’Jae Johnson, Mikaylah Williams—were very good, so it will be interesting to see how Wes Moore adjusts his approach defensively. Morrow presents an extra problem in that she’s an elite rebounder, especially at the offensive end. How NC State handles her influence there will be something to watch early on.
The Tigers are among the most three-pointer-averse teams in the country, with only 20.6% of their attempts coming from beyond the arc. Johnson and Williams account for well over half of those attempts, and they’re both good shooters. It’s not that this team can’t shoot from outside, just that it prefers not to. And there have been plenty of occasions where perimeter offense has been unnecessary for LSU; the Tigers just beat FSU by 30 despite a 3-10 effort from three.
Perhaps State can wrong-foot the Tigers by enticing a few more shots than usual from outside, but it’ll depend on who is taking them, and it requires a strong collective effort in the paint. The latter is really what this matchup boils down to. I fully expect NC State to be more effective offensively; the big question is how much more effective State can be defensively.