Meet the Tar Heels… completely understandable if your response is “hard pass”
Who’s the Pack playing?
Opponent: North Carolina
Mascot: Poop-Footed Sheep | School Location: Pretentioustown, NC | Conference: ACC
2025 Record: 36-10 (15-9, T-3rd) | 2025 RPI Rank: 10
2024 Record: 48-16 (22-8, 1st Coastal) | 2024 RPI Rank: 4
2023 Record: 36-24 (14-14, 4th Coastal) | 2023 RPI Rank: 33
When? Where? How do I watch?
Location: Boshamer Stadium (Chapel Hill, NC)
Game Time(s): Thurs, May 8 @ 6:00pm, Fri, May 9 @ 6:00pm | Sun, May 11 @ 1:00pm
TV: Thursday (ACCNX), Friday (ACCNX), Sunday (ACC Network)
Live Stats: Stat Broadcast (Thursday | Friday | Sunday)
Tell me about this team
As much as I hate to admit it – and I really hate to admit it – this is a really good UNC team. It’s a team built around a really strong weekend rotation, a bullpen with four high-end relievers, and a battle-tested lineup.
Before moving on, it’s worth noting the turnaround from head coach Scott Forbes. His first three years at the helm of the UNC program following the retirement of Mike Fox resulted in a 46-46 mark in the ACC and two seasons of RPI rankings north of 30 and exits in the NCAA Regional round. While the Tar Heels did make a Super Regional in between those two seasons (2022), they were disappointingly (for UNC fans, not for anyone else) bounced in two games of the Super Regional in Chapel Hill. It seemed like this experiment of handing the keys to the long-time assistant coach weren’t going as planned and there would soon be a coaching search in Chapel Hill.
Well, the last two seasons have been pretty great for UNC under Forbes with a trip to the CWS last year and a current top 10 RPI ranking this year. Yadda yadda, we’re all ready for them to fall off again. Hopefully State can be that push this weekend.
This year’s 10th ranked RPI Tar Heels team currently sports the 38th overall Strength of Schedule (SOS) and 121st ranked non-conference SOS. They’re essentially a high-end team that wins almost all the games they should (28-5 in Quad 2-4 games) while being more than competitive in games against equal competitions (8-5 in Quad 1 games).
UNC’s lineup has been plenty solid with a combined line of .284/.398/.463, 68 2B, 60 HR, 13.7 BB%, 19.6 K%, 71-82 SB. It’s an experienced group with 9 of the 12 healthy regulars being upper classmen, not to mention two of those other three are sophomores who have started a combined 200 games between them. Yeah, it’s an experienced group. There are only three true stolen base threats, but it’s a patient group (of those 12 regulars, only two have walk rates below 10.9%). They also don’t give away many outs.
The starting rotation is among the best in the country with a consistent group, led by rSR RHP Jake Knapp. Every member of the rotation sports a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-9.00 walk rate. Accurate and reliable are good traits to have as a starting pitcher. Finding three of them is pretty unique.
UNC had to deal with the loss of closer JR RHP Matthew Matthijs (1-1, 2 SV, 4.34 ERA, 18.2 IP, 9.3 BB%, 34.9 K%) in early April, but the group still runs a solid four deep with a few others, like SR LHP Tom Chmielewski (0-0, 1 SV, 0.00 ERA, 7.2 IP, 6.7 BB%, 16.7 K%) who are stepping up in Matthijs’ absence.
The combination of an experienced lineup, a strong rotation, and a reliable four-man relief corps will make this team dangerous in postseason play.
Pitching Matchups
Thursday: LHP Dominic Fritton (JR) — RHP Jake Knapp (rSR)
Friday: RHP Heath Andrews (SO) — RHP Aidan Haugh (SR)
Sunday: LHP Ryan Marohn (SO) — RHP Jason DeCaro (SO)
Key Players:
Offense
CF Kane Kepley (JR) – .278/.461/.438, 9 2B, 2 HR, 16.2 BB%, 8.8 K%, 33-37 SB. Transfer from Liberty who started his career with the Flames as a walk-on and followed his former coach to Chapel Hill. While undersized (5’8, 165 lbs), the speedy lefty leadoff man has found himself among the top 100 prospects in this year’s draft. On-base machine with an almost 2-to-1 walk-to-strikeout ratio and 21 HBP.
C Luke Stevenson (SO) – .280/.458/.612, 7 2B, 15 HR, 24.1 BB%, 22.2 K%, 2-2 SB. An easy 1st round pick in this year’s MLB Draft as a draft-eligible sophomore. The lefty hitter his gap-to-gap power from a solid build. Played with the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team last summer.
SS Alex Madera (rSR) – .335/.433/.413, 5 2B, 2 HR, 14.4 BB%, 12.4 K%, 9-10 SB. Former transfer from DIII Arcardia University, now in his second year as a starter for UNC. Not a huge power hitter, but has an excellent approach at the plate and is hard to strike out.
1B Hunter Stokely (rSR) – .333/.404/.576, 7 2B, 12 HR, 8.9 BB%, 22.7 K%, 3-3 SB. A modern day posterchild for sticking it out in one place. Stokely transformed himself from an overweight strikeout-prone freshman to a power-hitting slight-less-strikeout-prone senior. Has an amazingly high career BABIP (.383) for a guy with his lack of mobility.
RF Tyson Bass (rSR) – .303/.399/.480, 8 2B, 7 HR, 13.3 BB%, 26.6 K%, 11-12 SB. Grad transfer from DIII NC Wesleyan College where he was a 2024 1st Team All-American. Strikeouts have unsurprisingly popped up as an issue after such a big jump from DIII to the ACC, but he has pop and speed.
2B Jackson Van De Brake (rSR) – .299/.401/.449, 12 2B, 3 HR, 13.7 BB%, 17.2 K%, 3-3 SB. Came to UNC three years ago as one of the top JUCO transfers in the country. Things haven’t gone quite as expected thanks to a down 2024 campaign, but the native of Washington state is putting together a solid final collegiate season.
Pitching
RHP Jake Knapp (rSR) – 9-0, 2.14 ERA, 63.0 IP, 5.2 BB%, 25.0 K%. Former JUCO transfer missed all of 2024 due to Tommy John Surgery after making 16 starts for UNC in 2023 (5-4, 5.04 ERA, 64.1 IP, 12.0 BB%, 21.7 K%). The massive 6’5, 270-pounder has come back stronger than ever with even better control. Fastball can touch 96 mph, while he also has a solid slider and change to mix in.
RHP Aidan Haugh (SR) – 4-4, 3.27 ERA, 55.0 IP, 8.9 BB%, 26.3 K%. Former JUCO transfer mostly served as a reliever last year but has stepped into the rotation nicely this year. Low-to-mid 90’s fastball with a slider, curve, and changeup. Giving up the long ball is his weak spot (19 HR allowed over 106.2 IP over the last two years).
RHP Jason DeCaro (SO) – 6-3, 3.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 8.6 BB%, 18.4 K%. Big 6’5, 230 lbs frame who has been a workhorse for the Tar Heels despite graduating from high school early. Has a low-to-mid 90’s fastball and great feel for his offspeed pitches. Strikeout numbers haven’t quite jumped as expected, but he’s cut down on the HR rate.
RHP Walker McDuffie (FR) – 3-1, 4 SV, 3.30 ERA, 43.2 IP, 9.7 BB%, 32.4 K%. Has stepped up as the team’s closer with Matthijs out. Super talented freshman from Lee County can hit the mi-90’s with his fastball and has recorded 22 strikeouts over his last 15.0 innings pitched. Is a multi-inning arm for UNC with a devastating slider.
RHP Ryan Lynch (FR) – 4-0, 2 SV, 2.95 ERA, 39.2 IP, 10.4 BB%, 28.9 K%. Has a huge arm that has touched 97 mph this year. Also features a slider and changeup. Has been a mixed bag in terms of results this year.
LHP Folger Boez (SO) – 3-0, 3.95 ERA, 27.1 IP, 12.0 BB%, 22.4 K%. Missed a huge chunk of 2024 after suffering a UCL injury after 9 starts (3-1, 5.77 ERA, 39.0 IP, 10.1 BB%, 20.2 K%), but underwent a brace procedure rather than full on Tommy John Surgery. The draft-eligible sophomore has moved to the bullpen where his stuff can play up.
RHP Olin Johnson (SO) – 1-0, 2.77 ERA, 26.0 IP, 11.3 BB%, 17.9 K%. Served primarily as a midweek starter last year, he’s turned into an integral part of the bullpen this year. Not a big strikeout guy, but induces a lot of weak contact from a big 6’6, 230 lbs frame.
Quick! Fun Facts!
There’s nothing fun about this opponent.
The Key To A Series Win For State
UNC is not a team that’s going to beat itself and the pitching staff is built to maintain leads. NC State simply cannot continue their recent trend of falling behind early. If the Wolfpack wants to capture a huge series win this weekend, they’ll need to do so by being the team that score first.
Prediction
UNC is the team coming into this game with more momentum while NC State is the team with more to prove. The Wolfpack haven’t fared nearly as well away from the Doak this year (10-8) as they have at home (21-7). Neither team is particularly flush with bullpen arms, so whichever team gets more quality innings from the starting rotation is going to come out on tops in this one.
Outcome: The Pack drop two of three.