This conference stinks, which stinks, but is also good.
After whiffing on its four big non-conference games and making an unforced error in the form of scheduling Coppin State, NC State has a regrettably large amount of work to do to build a worthwhile NCAA tournament resume.
State hasn’t played like an NCAA team to this point and I suspect won’t be close to the field come March, but! The ACC exists again in a state of crisis, which in turn means there is opportunity. Has not being objectively of tournament-quality prevented teams from sneaking in as at-larges before? No, no it has not.
The ACC is about as bad as I can ever remember it: four teams in the KenPom top 50, only one in the top 25, and seven in the 100s. The volume of mediocre-or-worse that exists in the conference now is as astounding as it is depressing.
It means that quality win opportunities will be few and far between, but also that if you’re at State’s just-okayish-enough level, you can end up stockpiling wins—perhaps even enough to hear your name called on Selection Sunday. This will require good fortune, since there are probably going to be a lot of close games in the Pack’s future.
Twelve of State’s remaining 19 conference games are projected to be one-possession games by KenPom, so the bulk of the schedule at this point is in coin flip territory. State’s next two league games are among those: a projected one-point margin at UVA, and a two-pointer at Wake Forest.
If State can get the ball rolling by nabbing both of those contests—both on the road—then perhaps it can take that boost and make a strong run through January. The razor’s edge this team is living on will be a fact of life for the remainder of the season, and while my nagging concerns are pretty loud, there’s at least some optimism still to be found here.