The sophomore lefty continues to struggle
There’s no hiding that Cooper Consiglio is massively struggling this year. After spending last summer with the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team, expectations were high for the sophomore lefty, but so far it’s been rough going for the Florida native.
Here are some year-to-year figures for comparison (from D1Baseball.com):
- 2024: 4.97 ERA, .200/.339/.310, .240 BABIP, 13.5 BB%, 21.3 K%, 9.8 HR/FB%, 39.0 FB%
- 2025: 7.58 ERA, .309/.429/.568, .389 BABIP, 15.2 BB%, 23.2 K%, 16.7 HR/FB%, 41.4 FB%
From that we can conclude that Consiglio isn’t locating as well (higher BB%) and thus is having to throw more fastballs which opponents are crushing (see that entire slash line). He’s also allowing a higher rate of fly balls and a much higher rate of home runs per fly ball, which typically gets worse as the warmer weather sets in. None of this is good.
On the other hand, the BABIP numbers tell you that he was lucky last year and is unlucky this year (D1 average for BABIP falls around the .333 mark). Further numbers:
- 2024: 5.93 FIP, 6.11 XFIP, 4.44 SIERA
- 2025: 7.28 FIP, 6.41 XFIP, 4.39 SIERA
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) isolates pitching numbers from defensive luck by looking at the items a pitcher directly controls (K, BB, HBP, HR). XFIP (Expected FIP) is the same metric but uses a projected home run number (based on innings pitched) rather than the players actual home run total. XFIP and SIERA (a figure similar to XFIP, but factoring in balls in play) both say that Consiglio is basically the same pitcher this year as he was last year, only that he’s giving up more bombs (4 HR in 99 PA this year; 4 HR in 178 PA last year).
Some of those home runs are on him, of course, like the hang-em-and-bang-em breaking ball against USC Upstate. The home run that UNCG hit on Tuesday night was a good pitch that the hitter just put a better swing on. Sometimes that happens. And with the small sample size thus far, that HR rate can be considered misleading.
The walk rate number is also a bit misleading. Over his first three appearances of the year, Consiglio posted a 29.2 BB%. Over his eight outings since then it’s been a much more manageable 10.7%. For comparison, Dom Fritton has a 9.8 BB% this year.
All this is to say that we should expect a regression towards last year’s numbers as batted ball luck goes back to a more average figure. Of course, that assumes that Consiglio is able to locate in the zone at a level much closer to his recent efforts.
There’s a reason the coaching staff keeps putting Consiglio out there despite the struggles, and it’s because he’s painfully close to turning a corner and becoming the valuable relief asset he was a year ago.