CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (WNCN) — After failing to get a signature win over then-No. 2 Duke to end the regular season Saturday night, the North Carolina Tar Heels will likely have to win a few games at the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament this week to move on in the postseason.
The Tar Heels (20-12) go into the conference tournament, which starts Tuesday in Charlotte, as the fifth seed. As a result, they won’t play their first game until Wednesday afternoon against an opponent yet to be determined.
But even with a first-round bye, UNC will likely still have to string together a few wins — and potentially face Duke again — in order to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament “bubble.”
The Tar Heels are currently ranked 40 in the NET, one of the metrics the NCAA selection committee (which this year is chaired by UNC Athletic Director Bubba Cunningham) uses to determine who gets an at-large bid to the tournament. Carolina entered the season with one of the strongest non-conference schedules in the country but failed to capitalize, going 1-11 in games considered “Quad 1,” another important metric based off the NET rankings that determine how many quality wins a team has on its resume. UNC’s singular Quad 1 win was a 76-74 victory over then-No. 18 UCLA, a team that is currently ranked 24 in the NET, at Madison Square Garden in December.
Saturday night’s game at home against Duke would’ve been a Quad 1 win for the Tar Heels had they won, but without it, they find themselves with a tough task this week that could include another matchup against the Blue Devils in the semifinal round on Friday night.
So where does UNC sit on the bubble as the ACC Tournament starts: Last 4 In, First 4 Out or Next 4 Out? Here’s what some bracketologists are predicting.
Jerry Palm, CBS Sports
CBS Sports bracketology expert Jerry Palm has UNC listed as second on his list of First 4 Out, right behind Ohio State, who is 36 in the Net and has a 6-11 Quad 1 record.
“The Tar Heels are a spectacularly bad 1-11 in Quad 1 games. The win is UCLA, so that’s nice, but it is hard to see a path to an at-large bid without adding to that lonely win,” Palm wrote on Monday. “Unfortunately, UNC is the 5-seed in the ACC Tournament, which means that the first team it can see that helps them is Duke. The Blue Devils already have two double-digit wins over the Tar Heels.”
Joe Lunardi, ESPN
ESPN’s bracketologist Joe Lunardi also has the Tar Heels listed second in his group of First 4 Out. Lunardi puts them right behind Boise State, a team ranked 45 in the NET with a 2-5 Quad 1 record.
Mike DeCourcy, FOX Sports
Like Palm and Lunardi, FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy has Carolina second on his First 4 Out list, right behind Texas. The Longhorns are ranked 42 in the Net and have a 5-10 Quad 1 record.
USA TODAY Sports
The team of bracketologists at USA TODAY Sports has yet to put out new predictions since the weekend’s slate of games, but in their most recent bracketology, released Friday, they had the Tar Heels third in their First 4 Out group behind Oklahoma and Indiana. But with the Sooners (47 in the NET, 6-10 in Quad 1) beating Texas and the Hoosiers (52 in the NET, 4-12 in Quad 1) defeating Ohio State over the weekend, it’s hard to see UNC leapfrogging those two teams to rise up on the bubble.