The 2025-26 NBA regular season is nearly here, with just about a week until games start to impact the playoff race. In preparation for the year ahead, the Sportscasting crew teamed up to highlight one key stat for every team that could have significant implications for their success or lack thereof this year. Up next is the Southeast Division.
Let’s get to it.
Read our one key stat for teams in other Divisions: Central / Atlantic
Atlanta Hawks: 52.5
The Atlanta Hawks have built the ideal team around Trae Young. Armed with length and versatility on the wings, depth at multiple positions and capable shooters on the perimeter, the Hawks have the potential to be one of the very best teams in the Eastern Conference.
But their ceiling rides on the health of Kristaps Porzingis, who has played an average of 52.5 games the past six seasons since missing an entire year recovering from a torn ACL in 2018-2019.
Young has never played with a pick-and-pop threat as capable as Porzingis, a career 36.6 percent 3-point shooter who shot 39.2 percent in two seasons with the Boston Celtics. He’s equally as capable of attacking mismatches in the post, shooting over the top of smaller defenders and often bullying his way to the basket, too.
He combines that offensive versatility with a pristine ability to protect the basket defensively. Last season, Porzingis was one of three players to contest more than six shots at the rim per game and boast a defensive field goal percentage under 52. The other two? Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren.
Ultimately, his unicorn skill-set doesn’t matter much if he doesn’t play. And while the Hawks have depth, without Porzingis, they will only have Onyeka Okongwu and rookie Asa Newell to man the middle.
They need him to have an above-average season in terms of his availability if they want to hit their ceiling. -Es Baraheni
Charlotte Hornets: 26
In 2024-25, 26 members of the Charlotte Hornets missed games due to injury, more than any other team, and they placed third in total games missed (508). Charlotte faced nearly two full rosters’ worth of injuries in a nightmare health season, losing games from LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Grant Williams, Mark Williams and Tre Mann, among others. Moussa Diabate was the only member of the team to appear in at least 70 games.
Ball and Mark Williams (who is no longer on the roster) have significant injury track records but players like Miller and Grant Williams barely missed games before this past season. Teams like Charlotte, which construct their rosters around injury-prone players, run these risks but the health bug spread like wildfire across the Hornets last season.
Even a healthy Charlotte team must overcome notable defensive hurdles with a roster light on talent relative to the NBA’s best teams. Ball, Miller and fourth overall pick Kon Knueppel could drive a promising offense, though, with two elite off-ball shooters revolving around Ball’s playmaking.
None of this matters if Ball plays 30 games again or Miller’s issues persist. In a weak Eastern Conference, the Hornets have enough juice to push for a Play-In Tournament spot. One could argue they’re due for some positive injury regression. If they can finally muster a somewhat healthy season from most of their key players, they could finally escape the NBA’s basement. -Ben Pfeifer
Miami Heat: 46.9
Under head coach Erik Spoelstra, the Miami Heat almost always have a good defense. Since 2016, the Heat have placed top 10 in defensive rating every season (per Cleaning the Glass). What’s hurt them recently is their offense. They’ve been among the bottom 10 in offensive rating each of the last three seasons.
Everyone wants to talk about the 3-point revolution but the dirty little secret is the game of basketball is still about scoring in the paint. Offenses are doing whatever they can to score inside while defenses are doing whatever they can to keep them from getting there.
Coincidentally, the Heat have also been among the bottom 10 in points in the paint the past three seasons, including 21st last year (46.9 per game). The Heat will almost surely have a good defense in 2025-26 but if they want to be more than a low 40-win team, they will need to get that offense closer to league average.
That all starts with generating more shots inside. The offseason acquisition of Norm Powell will surely help. Last season, America’s favorite combo guard attempted 5.3 shots at the rim per 75 possessions (74th percentile, per Dunks & Threes). But the guy who really needs to step up here is Bam Adebayo.
In 2021-22, Adebayo was in the 90th percentile in rim attempts per 75 (7.8). But since then, his output has deteriorated each season, culminating in 4.4 attempts per 75 last year (60th percentile).
Adebayo needs to start trading in some of his midrange looks (97th percentile in volume last year) for paint shots if the Heat are going to create a healthier offensive environment. It would also be nice if his favorite pick-and-roll partner, Tyler Herro, joined him in this crusade (he’s never placed higher than the 48th percentile in this category). -Mat Issa
Orlando Magic: 96.51
No matter if one scans an array of stats or catches half a game, the Orlando Magic’s offensive foibles are readily apparent over the last many seasons. Since Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner became teammates in 2022-23, Orlando’s finished 22nd or worse in offensive rating every year.
The primary culprits for these woes are obvious: a lack of shooting and scoring punch, injury bugs and young, imperfect creators leading the way. But some of the issues are self-imposed. Orlando plays at a glacial tempo, headlined by a league-low pace of 96.51 last season.
Now, playing faster is not a requirement for effective offense. The Boston Celtics were 29th in pace and second in offensive rating in 2024-25. Yet for a Magic offense so hamstrung by half-court problems, pursuing more early offense or quick-hitting chances could prove beneficial, particularly since Orlando’s finished second in opposing turnover rate the past two years. The opportunity for running is there!
To help buoy the offense and better complement their domineering defense (second in defensive rating the past two years), the Magic dealt out four first-round picks for Desmond Bane this offseason. Though not a superstar offensive talent, Bane is a very good one, capable of extinguishing some of Orlando’s ball-handling, shooting and passing worries.
Bane could also remedy some of the Magic’s pacing troubles to behoove their offense. He’s generated a transition frequency of 20 percent or higher every year of his career and finished among the 60th percentile or better in points per possession four times. The sweet-shooting guard loves to slalom through creases for buckets inside or bomb pull-up threes while defenders retread toward the paint.
As he heads to Orlando, the focus becomes learning how much of Bane’s inclinations were his own doing and how much they were directives from the Memphis Grizzlies’ coaching staff, with Memphis finishing among the top three in transition frequency during four of Bane’s five seasons. Further, how much of Orlando’s cumbersomely methodical nature is a personnel issue and how much stems from head coach Jamahl Mosley’s preferences?
Regardless, the Magic surely have lofty aspirations for 2025-26. A deep playoff run is plausible. But they cannot dwell near the bottom offensively again and expect to actualize that goal. Bane and better health will lift them from their 26th-place finish of last year. Doing so doesn’t guarantee playoff viability, though. Getting to that point means letting loose in the open floor more to avoid the constraints half-court offense may still present. Bane, Banchero and Mosley must all prioritize it. -Jackson Frank
Washington Wizards: 119.2
I know I’m cheating by picking such a vague stat for this column. But to be fair, it is pretty hard to do such a narrow analysis for a rebuilding team with a season not likely defined by wins and losses.
Barring a miracle of epic proportions, the Washington Wizards won’t be competitive in 2025-26. That’s OK, though. That shouldn’t be their expectation. Their goal should be to show their young team is trending upward.
The easiest way to do that is to build an identity on the defensive side of the ball. Think about what the Oklahoma City Thunder did to get where they are. Unlike offense, which is heavily contingent on having talented personnel, you can go a long way on defense with effort.
Last season, the Wizards were 28th in defensive rating, allowing 119.2 points per 100 possessions (per Cleaning the Glass). Can they get closer to 20th this year? On the surface, that may not seem like a major improvement but it would go a long way toward helping this team reach its ultimate objective: building a sustainable winner in Washington for the first time in what seems like forever. -Mat Issa
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