We’re in a quiet transactional period as we wait for the July moratorium to lift tomorrow. There are still a handful of top restricted free agents who have yet to sign new contracts, but with a dearth of cap space around the league, the players don’t have a ton of negotiating leverage, so it could take a while for those situations to play out.
John Hollinger of The Athletic recently weighed in on some of the biggest winners and losers to this point in the offseason. The article is technically centered around free agency, but it takes all offseason moves into account.
Hollinger lauds the moves the Hawks have made, including trading for Kristaps Porzingis, landing what could be an extremely valuable 2026 first-round pick from the Pelicans (only this deal is official), acquiring Nickeil Alexander-Walker in a sign-and-trade, and signing sharpshooter Luke Kennard. Atlanta still has its bi-annual exception available, Hollinger notes, and is about $7.4MM below the luxury tax line.
While they’re facing a minor roster crunch, Hollinger also likes the Hornets‘ offseason thus far, saying they had a strong draft (Kon Knueppel, Liam McNeeley, Sion James, Ryan Kalkbrenner) and have done solid work on the trade market, particularly adding Collin Sexton and a second-round pick from Utah for Jusuf Nurkic. He also views Spencer Dinwiddie as a nice pickup on a veteran’s minimum deal.
The defending champion Thunder are the third team on Hollinger’s list of winners, bringing back 14 of their 15 players on standard deals while essentially replacing Dillon Jones with first-round pick Thomas Sorber. Oklahoma City is below the luxury tax line and also retained Jaylin Williams and Ajay Mitchell on team-friendly deals, Hollinger observes.
The month of July is Hollinger’s biggest loser, as free agency is no longer the same type of event on the league’s schedule as it used to be, for a variety of reasons.
For actual teams, Hollinger thinks the Celtics and Pacers have taken steps back. He credits Boston’s front office for shedding the salaries of Porzingis and Jrue Holiday without having to attach sweeteners (the Celtics will actually receive two second-rounders from Portland in the Holiday deal).
But the Celtics also lost Luke Kornet in free agency and Al Horford is viewed as unlikely to return. And they still need to trim about $20MM from their books to move below the luxury tax to avoid the repeater penalty. The biggest question mark, according to Hollinger, is how can the Celtics position themselves to be a contender again in 2026/27, when Jayson Tatum has recovered from his torn Achilles tendon?
As for the Pacers, they’re on Hollinger’s list for losing longtime center Myles Turner to the division-rival Bucks in free agency. They still have pathways to find a new starting center, Hollinger writes, and their front office has largely done excellent work over the years. But Indiana is in a similar boat as Boston, with 2025/26 increasingly looking like a “gap year” in the wake of Tyrese Haliburton‘s Achilles tear and more uncertainty heading into ’26/27 with Turner no longer on the roster.
We want to know what you think. Do you agree with Hollinger’s winners and losers? Most people seem high on the Rockets’ moves, but they weren’t included. I was also mildly surprised to not see the Pelicans on the list of losers. Head to comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.