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These 3 NBA Teams Could Go From The Lottery To The Playoffs

August 21, 2025 by Sportscasting

Most NBA seasons feature teams outperforming preseason expectations, fueled by organic development. Teams like the Orlando Magic in 2024, Oklahoma City Thunder in 2024 and Houston Rockets in 2025 rose to playoff quality without any massive roster shakeups via trade or free agency.

We’re defining an “organic leap” as one driven by player development on the roster and in-house changes. Teams with notable offseason additions like the Atlanta Hawks with Kristaps Porzingis and Orlando with Desmond Bane won’t qualify, for example.

While there aren’t any candidates this season as clear as the Thunder in 2023 or the Rockets in 2024, a team will inevitably improve its position through internal development. These are the three teams most likely to ascend a tier or two in the NBA’s hierarchy, ordered by my confidence in those teams to do so.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers finished an unassuming 36-46 in 2025, posting the league’s 21st-best net rating. Toward the end of the year, though, Portland hit its stride, driven by a fourth-place defense and 14th-ranked net rating after the All-Star Break.

Toumani Camara has etched himself onto the shortlist of NBA’s best perimeter defenders. He’s constantly switching to defend primary scorers of all sizes, placing in the 90th percentile or better in Crafted NBA’s matchup difficulty and versatility rating metrics (measures the amount of time spent guarding different positions).

He consistently forces bad shots and turnovers, ranking among the top 10 last season in STOP rate (steals plus blocks recovered plus offensive fouls drawn) at 4.6 percent. A partnership with 2024 top-10 pick Donovan Clingan — who led the NBA in shots defended per 100 possessions (33.2), tied for third in block rate (7.4 percent) and looks like a future dominant paint protector — could be devastatingly good defensively.

Those two ascending defenders alongside the newly acquired Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant and Robert Williams form an imposing group. But for the Blazers to reach playoff status in a loaded Western Conference, they must improve on their bottom-10 offense.

Two of Portland’s five highest scorers (Anfernee Simons, Deandre Ayton) departed this summer and it didn’t add any other players outside of Holiday. A weak Blazers offense lacked reliable outside shooting (26th in 3-point efficiency) and shot creation (28th in assist rate) last season. Improvement in those areas will stem from critical internal development.

The bulk of their passing value will sprout from sources other than the backcourt in Portland. Avdija is the team’s best all-around playmaker, posting career-highs in assists (6.4) and potential assists (13.5) per 100 possessions during his first year with the Blazers. He spent 22 percent of his minutes on the ball, placing him in the 94th percentile positionally.

Avdija reached career-best efficiency marks on creation play types (isolation, pick-and-roll ball-handler, post-up), managing an elite plus-9.7 percent true shooting on those plays. Improved slashing, midrange scoring and foul-drawing further unlock his live-dribble passing, where he punishes defenses with his great vision on the move:

Continued on-ball development from Avdija, who averaged nearly 17 points per game on plus-three relative efficiency, is key for Portland to realize its offensive ceiling. Avdija thrives as an early offense wrecking ball, though he’s a more controlled half-court creator now than ever before.

Even if Avdija leaps into All-Star impact territory, the Blazers will need more offensive firepower to field a competent offense. Next season is a likely turning point for Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, who both need major growth on both ends as well as better injury luck. Sharpe especially oozes creation upside, already prolific as a foul-drawer and rim finisher, though his decision-making and overall efficiency need improvement.

shaedon sharpe’s advantage creation tools are still unreal, few wings match his burst, bend and change of speed. took 4.8 rim attempts/75 last season (91st percentile positionally)

he has plenty of room to grow but the offensive ceiling is worth being patient for pic.twitter.com/usJrn0lBZa

— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) August 15, 2025

A second-year leap from Clingan alongside Holiday, Avdija and Camara could make Portland one of the NBA’s top defenses and drive winning, even with offensive weak points. But the Blazers should have the firepower to outpace their projected win total (33.5) and push for a playoff berth.

Charlotte Hornets

There’s only so much new and insightful to say about Charlotte’s injury situation. LaMelo Ball played 47 games last season and has appeared in 105 games across the last three seasons. In 2025, Brandon Miller played 27 games. Mark Williams played 44. Grant Williams played 16. Tre Mann played 13.

But a healthy Hornets squad deserves more consideration as a potential ascending team (and my colleague, Mat Issa, agrees!). Ball, when healthy, must rein in some of his truly baffling shot attempts if he’s to lead a winning team. It’s reasonable, though, to argue for him as a top-30 player.

Burgeoning synergy between Ball and Miller suggests a possible offensive leap for the Hornets, which placed 29th, 27th and 30th in offensive rating over the last three seasons. Ball’s preternatural playmaking chops and live-dribble creation blend smoothly with a tall, elite movement shooter like Miiller, who also owns some secondary creation skills.

First-year head coach Charles Lee experimented with Miller as a screener for Ball, building in easy off-ball scoring options for him. Whether Miller screens and ghosts to the perimeter, flares off a pick or curls to the hoop, Charlotte often found ways for him to maximize his scoring and passing:

Miller’s volume shooting — he ranked fourth in threes per 100 possessions (15.7) last season — creates more space for Ball to operate. Though Ball’s efficiency has never cleared league-average true shooting, his scoring volume (27.7 -> 30 points per 75 possessions) and true shooting (52.5 percent -> 56.2 percent) increased with Miller on the court in 2024-25.

He led a top-six regular-season offense in 2021, his last healthy campaign. A healthy 2025-26 Hornets team arguably boasts a higher ceiling than that offense, thanks to Miller, top-four pick Kon Knueppel and an older, better version of Ball. Last year, Ball and Miller produced an offensive rating 2.7 points better than league average during their time together on the floor.

Defense should continue to limit the Hornets, which haven’t placed inside the top 20 defensively since 2018. Beyond liabilities like Ball, Mann and Miles Bridges, the Hornets will rely on a second-round rookie and 6-foot-9 Moussa Diabate (who, in fairness, is a solid player) to anchor the middle at center.

Charlotte’s arsenal of role players, while much more competent than years past, features mostly offense-first players like Collin Sexton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Mann and Knueppel. Josh Green and Grant Williams provide some defensive value but their individual limitations shine brighter on worse defensive teams.

If luck finally breaks its way, though, Charlotte’s offense could help it push for a playoff berth. In a weak Eastern Conference, a standout offense captained by Ball and Miller during Lee’s second season could be enough to fuel the Hornets’ first true playoff appearance since 2016.

Toronto Raptors

Across Toronto’s 27 games after the All-Star Break, the Raptors boasted the NBA’s second-rated defense. On the year, the 30-52 Raptors ranked 14th in defensive rating, placing them slightly better than the league average. Despite their underwhelming win total, head coach Darko Rajakovic is building a versatile, turnover-creating defensive unit.

Led by Scottie Barnes, Toronto’s stocked cupboard of large, switchable wings and forwards posted a 16.2 percent turnover rate, which ranked third in the NBA after the All-Star Break. Its 2025 lottery pick, Collin Murray-Boyles, has the feel and athleticism to become an elite off-ball defender with the foot speed to switch on guards and moonlight as a big man defender when needed.

The Raptors pressed at the fourth-highest frequency (5.8 percent) in the league last season, tossing lanky athletes at opposing offenses. That incessant pressure, paired with liberal switching, results in plenty of turnovers, like their first defensive possession of this game against the Detroit Pistons:

Barnes is an all-league defensive ace who’s blossomed into a well-rounded weapon. He was one of 11 high-minutes (more than 25 per game) players to match or eclipse a two percent steal rate and 2.9 percent block rate. Toronto’s defensive scheme leans into Barnes’ versatility, allowing him to impact tons of plays as a paint defender.

Though Barnes spends plenty of time defending the ball and racking up deflections, he’s large enough to bruise with bigger players, owning the foot speed to unlock versatile pick-and-roll coverage:

A version of the Raptors that rises to playoff quality would lean on its defense as its primary strength, just as teams like Houston and Orlando have done. But the Raptors must find a path to stability on offense; they’ve ranked 25th and 24th in offensive rating the last two seasons.

They’ll hope trading for former All-Star Brandon Ingram — who still hasn’t suited up for the Raptors since being acquired at the 2025 deadline — can inject enough offensive firepower to stay afloat. Injuries have marred Ingram’s career recently, but his outside shooting and shot creation will help remedy some of the team’s main offensive limitations.

Ingram returning to form as a pick-and-roll scorer and off-ball creator would take some pressure off of Barnes, who’s been overtaxed as an offensive centerpiece. Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Gradey Dick must provide sufficient supplementary scoring and playmaking.

Even a passable offense could vault the Raptors to playoff contention in a wide open Eastern Conference. Achieving that will require a mix of internal development and newer pieces settling in well, harmonizing to complement a defense with top-five upside.

The post These 3 NBA Teams Could Go From The Lottery To The Playoffs appeared first on Sportscasting | Pure Sports.

Filed Under: Hornets

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