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Dallas Stars vs. Winnipeg Jets Second Round 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Series Preview

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The second round of the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs is here. Here at Last Word on Hockey, we are dedicated to providing continuous coverage throughout every series. This is our preview of the Western Conference second-round series featuring the Dallas Stars vs the Winnipeg Jets. The two teams fought for supremacy in the Western Conference all season and will get a chance to settle the debate when it matters most.

Western Conference Second Round Stars vs Jets Playoff Series Preview

Both teams went down to the wire in a couple of first-round series that lasted the full seven games. Dallas prevailed over the Colorado Avalanche despite dropping Game 1 for the eighth consecutive playoff series and decisive performances from the Avs in Game 4 and Game 6. A wild third period led by former Avalanche forward Mikko Rantanen sent the Stars to the second round as they eliminated Colorado for a second-straight season.

Meanwhile, the Jets coughed up a 2-0 series lead against the St. Louis Blues and needed last-second heroics to keep their playoff run alive. Winnipeg’s Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti each scored in the final two minutes of regulation. Perfetti’s goal crossed the goal line with 1.6 seconds left, and Adam Lowry tipped the puck into the net for the game-winner in double overtime.

This is the first time Dallas and Winnipeg have faced each other in the postseason. Winnipeg has made the playoffs eight times since moving from Atlanta in 2011, but this is just the third time they have survived the first round. The Jets were eliminated in the opening round the last two years but reached the second round in 2021 and the Western Conference Final in 2018.

On the other hand, Dallas is making its fourth consecutive playoff appearance and has advanced past the first round for the third-straight season. Dallas is four wins away from a third-consecutive appearance in the Western Conference Final. It’s also the second year in a row the Stars have eliminated their opening-round opponent in seven games. They won the that series in six games last year. Can Dallas do the same to the Jets, or will Winnipeg’s dominance from the regular season continue against the Stars in the playoffs?

How the Stars and the Jets Matched Up During the Regular Season

The Jets and the Stars fought all season for first place in the NHL’s Central Division and the No. 1 overall seed in the Western Conference. They faced each other four times during the regular season, with Winnipeg winning three times. The Jets outscored the Stars 13-5 overall and held Dallas to one goal or fewer in each win.

Forward Kyle Connor, Winnipeg’s leading scorer, has scored four goals in the last two meetings with Dallas, while Namestnikov played well against his former team. Morgan Barron was also a key factor in the head-to-head matchups, with a goal in the last two.

Forwards Mason Marchment and Roope Hintz were Dallas’ best players against Winnipeg this season. They each scored two goals. Hintz enters this series tied for second on the Stars with seven points (four goals and three assists) this postseason. Marchment has a goal and two assists.

Both teams are dealing with injuries entering this series. Dallas’ Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen did not play in the first round, yet both were skating with the team at practice on Tuesday. Winnipeg’s Mark Schiefele, Josh Morrissey, and Logan Stanley all wore non-contact jerseys at Tuesday’s practice.

Keys to Victory for the Dallas Stars

A key component of the last series was consistency, and that’s important yet again against the Jets. The Finnish line of Mikael Granlund, Roope Hintz, and Rantanen was great against Colorado. They ended up accounting for 21 points in the series. Yet, the other nine forwards tallied a total of 26 points.

Stars Need More, Can’t Repeat Past Mistakes

The Stars did some shuffling with their lines for practice on Tuesday, mostly mixing their projected second and third-line players. If Robertson is able to return, it adds another scoring threat to the lineup and opportunities to have at least one other consistently good line. Winnipeg goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has struggled in the postseason, and a potent lineup like Dallas will need to take advantage.

Special teams will also be critical for Dallas. This season, the Stars did not score a single power play goal against Winnipeg and allowed the Jets to score two. Dallas has the fifth-best power play in the playoffs so far, and it was a critical factor in the Stars’ wins against Colorado. The potential return of Heiskanen could also take some responsibility off Thomas Harley as another capable playmaker to run things with the man advantage.

The Stars also allowed shorthanded scoring opportunities against Colorado. The Avs scored two shorthanded goals in the first-round series (tied for most in the NHL) after scoring just five during the regular season. Winnipeg doesn’t score shorthanded often but was not far behind Colorado in the regular season. With the scoring struggles against the Jets this season, Dallas would also benefit from quicker starts and playing with a lead. Winnipeg scored first in all four regular-season meetings.

Winnipeg’s Keys to Victory and How Get Hellebuyck Right

Goaltending might be the biggest key for Winnipeg in this series. Connor Hellebuyck is a Vezina Trophy finalist but has not played like it in the postseason. He ranks 23rd in goals-against average (GAA) and 24th in save percentage among playoff goalies. That’s a far cry from his league-leading 2.01 GAA and second-best .925 SV% in the regular season. It doesn’t appear to be an outlier either. Between his regular season and post-season performances, his numbers have dropped in the playoffs for three straight years.

Jets Must Use Subtle Advantages

Taking early leads will be huge as well. It seems like Winnipeg plays best when they’re ahead, and the Jets likely won’t have opportunities to come back against the Stars like they did against the Blues. Dallas doesn’t often lose faith in its ability to make every game a battle, so the Jets must continue to counter every punch the Stars throw until the final bell rings and the series concludes.

Stealing a road game could also swing this series in the Jets’ direction. Winnipeg won all four home games in their first-round series and keep the home-ice advantage against Dallas. That’s not only huge if this goes six or seven games, but it allows the Jets to dodge a raucous and rampant American Airlines Center crowd in Dallas, Texas as much as possible.

Stars-Jets Betting Odds and Series Favourite, Prediction

Dallas (-182) is favoured to win the series over the Jets (+150). The difference in play between Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger has to be a significant influence here, as does the health of both teams. The Jets had a clear advantage during the regular season but struggled to put the Blues away in the first round. The makeup of these two teams says this could go a full seven games. The team that plays best on the road could be the deciding factor. So far this season, it’s been advantage Winnipeg when these teams meet.

Prediction: Jets take the series 4-2.

Main Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

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