Welcome to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The time has come. Tonight at 5:00 PM ET, the Carolina Hurricanes start their quest for the Stanley Cup.
For the third time in the last six seasons, Carolina will face the New York Islanders in the playoffs.
For an overview of Round 1, check out Al’s series preview.
New York head coach Patrick Roy announced Semyon Varlamov is the starter for Game 1. Down the stretch, Varlamov was one of the primary factors behind the Islanders’ surge into the playoffs.
From March 10, Varlamov went 8-1-1 with a 2.09 goals against average, a .930 save percentage, and one shutout. His .918 save percentage ranks third in the NHL this season.
Varlamov was the winning goaltender on November 30, 2023, when the Islanders beat the Hurricanes in overtime. He faced a barrage of shots, making 39 saves on 43 shots.
Much like Carolina, New York is fortunate to have two reliable options in net. Ilya Sorokin started 55 games for the Islanders this season, seventh-most among all goalies this season.
There are a few players to keep an eye on during this series.
Kyle Palmieri and Brock Nelson are New York’s hottest players. Palmieri is on a seven-game point streak, the longest of his career. He has tallied six goals and four assists during those games, and has scored a goal in six of his last seven games.
Nelson has four goals and four assists in his last five games.
Mathew Barzal leads the Islanders in points and power play points. His 57 assists rank 20th in the NHL. Barzal had eight points in four games between these teams this season.
Since 2022, including the playoffs, Barzal, Nelson, and Palmieri have 13 points against the Hurricanes.
The difference in special teams’ effectiveness is well-documented and likely one of the biggest factors for the series. Carolina’s second-best power play against New York’s league-worst penalty kill could make or break the series. But that is all dependent on New York’s discipline to stay out of the box and whether or not the referees’ whistles stay in their pockets.
However, let’s take a look at where the Islanders excel.
New York leads the NHL in blocked shots. This creates a very intriguing matchup, as Carolina has the third most shots per game and shot attempts in the league.
There is no doubt that this will be a key part of the Islanders’ strategy in this series. Here’s Roy on blocked shots:
This team [Carolina] shoots from everywhere, but that goes with the sacrifice, and we’re going have to block shots. We’re going to have good sticks on pucks and make sure that we squeeze them on their entry and try to keep them away from the net.
New York may look to a piece of Florida’s playbook from last season’s Eastern Conference Finals: physicality.
The Islanders, led by Cal Clutterbuck, rank sixth in the NHL in hits. This is in stark contrast to the Hurricanes, who are last in that category.
The Canes must be ready for a physical series. More than in years past, this team is better equipped to handle that play.
With Carolina christened as the Stanley Cup favorites at the start of the postseason, the underdog mentality is strong with New York. Undoubtedly, the Islanders will be looking to hit the Canes in the mouth soon after the first puck drop.
Speaking of the first puck drop, New York was the third-best team in the first period this season. The Islanders had a goal differential of +23 in the first period, while the Canes were just +5.
The second period is another big difference between these teams. The Islanders nearly flip in that category, ranking fourth-worst in the NHL with a -24 goal differential in the second. The Hurricanes were the best second period team in the league this season with a +37 goal differential.
Defenseman Noah Dobson, who missed the final three games of the regular season with an injury, will be on the ice tonight. Dobson became just the third defenseman in Islanders history to record 70 points in a season. He leads the Islanders in average time on ice and obviously an important offensive weapon as New York’s second-leading scorer.
In other injury news, JG Pageau will be a game-time decision.
Below are the projected lines for New York:
#Isles lines at Friday’s practice:
Cizikas-Horvat-Barzal
Fasching-Nelson-Palmieri
Lee-MacLean-Engvall
Martin-Clutterbuck-HolmstromRomanov-Dobson
Pelech-Pulock
Reilly-Bortuzzo— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) April 19, 2024
For the Hurricanes, the likely starter tonight is Frederik Andersen. There should be an announcement this afternoon around 3:00 PM by head coach Rod Brind’Amour.
This season, Martin Necas was the leading scorer for Carolina against New York. Necas had five points in four games, including a two-assist performance in December 23.
Sebastian Aho has been Carolina’s go-to player versus New York. Aho has 19 points in 26 regular season games against the Islanders.
Last postseason, Aho had four goals and three assists in the 4-2 series win over the Islanders.
Even with Aho’s impressive performances against New York, the Canes now have a player that has caused even more hurt for the Islanders.
In 30 regular season games against New York, Jake Guentzel has 11 goals and 21 assists. However, the last time Guentzel was in the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Penguins were upset by the Islanders in six games, with Guentzel tallying just a goal and a assist.
As publicized this week, Jasper Fast will not be in the lineup tonight. However, he should be available later in the series.
Here is a look at the lines:
#CauseChaos lines
Guentzel-Aho-Jarvis
Teravainen-Kotkaniemi-Necas
Martinook-Staal-Svechnikov
Drury-Kuznetsov-NoesenSlavin-Burns
Skjei-Pesce
Orlov-ChatfieldAndersen
KochetkovExtras: Lemieux, DeAngelo, Morrow
Jesper Fast still absent
— Ryan Henkel (@RyanHenkel_) April 19, 2024
The scoring depth is one of the most encouraging things about the Hurricanes’ playoff run. Up and down the lineup, the team can be a threat to score.
The Islanders are getting a lot of press about their impressive march to the playoffs, and rightly so.
Even so, New York is not given much of a shot in this series by the sportsbooks and media. This can be dangerous for Carolina. Brind’Amour must ensure the Canes can match that underdog mentality on and off the ice.
If you are going to the game tonight, arrive early. There is a car show across the street at the State Fairgrounds.
Here’s how to check out the action:
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
- Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC
- TV: Bally Sports South with Mike Maniscalco, play-by-play; Tripp Tracy, color analyst; Hanna Yates, in-game reporter; Shane Willis, analyst.
- Radio: 99.9 The Fan
- Line: ML: CAR -245; PL: CAR -1.5 +120