The Panthers swept the Hurricanes in four close games in the 2023 ECF’s, but these are different teams
Rounds one and two are wrapped up and the NHL is down to the final four teams in the quest for Lord Stanley’s Cup.
While the Oilers and Stars do battle in the West, the Carolina Hurricanes face off against the Florida Panthers in a rematch of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals here in the East.
The Panthers defeated an experienced Tampa Bay Lightning and (some say) a cursed Toronto Maple Leafs to get to this point.
The Canes beat the injury depleted New Jersey Devils and the regular season Eastern Conference Champion, Washington Capitals, both in five games.
As of this writing, the Panthers are a slight favorite in this series, though the Hurricanes have the home ice advantage. The Canes have yet to lose this postseason in Raleigh and had one of the league’s best regular season records on home ice.
A lazy journalist or oddsmaker may look at the results of the 2023 series and think the Panthers would sweep the Canes again. But, let’s take a closer look.
First of all, one of Carolina’s best players, Andrei Svechnikov, was injured that postseason. How important is Svechnikov to the Hurricanes?
So far, he has scored 8 goals in 10 games to lead his team. He is also a physical presence and an excellent passer.
In 2023, let’s take a look at the starting game one lineup for Carolina.
Mackenzie MacEachern – Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis
Jordan Martinook – Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Martin Necas
Stefan Noesen – Jordan Staal – Jesper Fast
Derek Stepan – Paul Stastny – Jesse Puljujarvi
To start out the series, Teravainen was also injured.
The defense is the same except that Sean Walker and Dmitri Orlov replaced Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei.
The goalies were Fred Andersen and Antti Raanta.
There is no doubt the forward lines are upgraded, even though as PK Subban would say, “they lost Martin Necas”.
The expected forward lines for the Canes on Tuesday will be-
Svechnikov – Aho – Jarvis
Hall – Roslovic – Stankoven
Martinook – Staal – Carrier
Robinson – Kotkaniemi – Blake
No doubt, the Panthers are a different team as well. Most notably, Brad Marchand and Seth Jones are at the top of the “newbie” list.
Marchand leads the team with 12 points in 12 games as does Eetu Luostarinen.
Reinhart has 11 points while Barkov and Lundell each have 10, (also in 12 games).
We have yet to even get to Bennett and Tkachuk, who each have 9 points.
Rodrigues – Barkov – Reinhart
Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk
Luostarinen – Lundell – Marchand
Greer – Nosek – Gadjovich
(Luostarinen was originally a Carolina second round pick in 2020. He was traded to the Panthers along with several other assets in exchange for Vincent Trocheck.)
Forsling – Ekblad
Jones – Mikkola
Schmidt – Kulikov
The Panthers seem loaded. But let’s face it, they were playing against Toronto’s backup goalie after Bennett knocked Anthony Stolarz out of their series.
If Fred Andersen can stay healthy, that will make a huge difference.
Sergei Bobrovsky is in net for Florida. When he is hot, he is brick wall, but he can also be cold. He currently has a .901 save percentage with a 2.31 GAA in this postseason.
Andersen has the best stats in the playoffs with a save percentage of .937 and a GAA of 1.36.
I’m not going to delve into fancy stats or regular season comparisons. We will be posting links to anything we find interesting.
But another big difference between 2023 and this year?
The Carolina powerplay is being productive.
The Canes powerplay success rate this postseason is 28.1%
Florida’s is 20.5%.
The Carolina penalty kill finished best in the NHL in the regular season and has continued excelling in the playoffs. (93.3%, best in NHL)
Florida’s kill is at 89.5%.
Needless to say the Canes will need to continue this against the Cats.
I attended Carolina’s practice and press conference on Monday and the team seems confident.
Sebastian Aho – “To be the best you need to beat the best. We’re ready, we’re hungry, and we cannot wait.”
Fred Andersen – “It’s a team effort. We look around the room, everyone’s bought into that extra little bit that it takes this time of year. You don’t have to look far to see those extra little efforts. They come up in video all of the time. They may not show up on the highlight tapes on TV, but we see them, and we recognize each other for them. And we want to do them even more for each other.”