Checking in with the fans of a successful franchise
The Carolina Panthers are taking on a franchise that has been the picture of consistent success in recent years, despite coaching changes, quarterback woes, and every other issue that plagues the rest of the league. In short, the Philadelphia Eagles are basically what could have been if the Panthers had been in the business of making good decisions since 2015.
I asked Brandon Lee Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation a couple of questions about how the team has maintained their success in spite of major coaching shifts this year, how they are going to sustain in light of recent injuries on defense, and how their hubris treating the unsustainable workload that Saquon Barkley is currently handling. Spoiler, he thinks everything is going to be fine on that last front and I had the courtesy not to laugh so hard that I had to dry my tears with a Christian McCaffrey jersey.
He then returned the favor by suggesting possible ways in which the Panthers could win this week. It’s, uh, it’s not promising stuff for the Panthers. Read on to see his detailed thoughts on all of that and more:
The Eagles are in their first season with new offensive and defensive coordinators. How did the team manage to avoid taking a major step backwards in the midst of this massive change in leadership?
Replacing Matt Patricia with Vic Fangio was, to say the least, a massive upgrade. The Eagles’ defense was such a disaster down the stretch last season. They simply were not well-coordinated; the players were all out of sorts. Now, it’s just the opposite; the Eagles’ defense is incredibly cohesive with players are reliably assignment-sound. Mix really good coaching with the combination of really good talent and player development and, voila, the Eagles have a really good defense.
Replacing Brian Johnson with Kellen Moore was a bit of a different story. Johnson was scapegoated a bit; he was fired in part due to Nick Sirianni’s shortcomings in his offensive role. The Eagles have done well to shift to a run-heavy offensive identity but it’s hard to say exactly how much credit Moore deserves for that. Their success on the ground certainly wouldn’t be possible without such a special player like Saquon Barkley. But, hey, it’s not like Moore is calling passes all game long and getting away from the run.
The defensive coordinator change was definitely a big upgrade. Moore isn’t an upgrade to the same extent but the Eagles’ willingness to overhaul their offensive process was meaningful.
The Eagles are currently operating as a run first offense behind a resurgent Barkley. Barkley is on track to smash past 2,000 yards on the ground. Is that sustainable across a whole season? If not, do the Eagles have what it takes to win without him?
Yes, I do believe it’s sustainable within this season. I’m not sure what Barkley’s production might look like next year but that’s a topic for the future.
There’s been a lot of talk about managing Barkley’s workload but he’s an awesome player and the Eagles are in the hunt for the No. 1 seed. Scaling back on his touches isn’t really a great option at the moment. The most realistic way to decrease Barkley’s workload is to blow out some of their opponents down the stretch and pull him from the game once the lead is safe. Clinching the first-round bye would be pretty helpful as well.
If none of that is possible, I’m still not worried about Barkley. He’s a freak of nature and he’s shown no signs of slowing thus far.
In the event that something does happen to him, well, I’m not feeling so great about the Eagles’ outlook. They’re not just a run first offense; they’re THE NFL’s top run first offense with a 56.59% rushing play percentage. That’s first in the NFL by 5.38%! The gap between them and second is the same between second and 12th. The top teams in rushing play pecentage from previous 10 seasons were at 49.92%, 56.19%, 49.87%, 55.04%, 54.07%, 52.44%, 49.49%, 48.70%, 50.10%, and 51.93%. You have to go all the way back to the 2009 New York Jets, who were at 59.22%, to find a rushing play percentage that high.
Without Barkley, the Eagles still have a top-notch defense that figures to keep them competitive. But there are questions if the passing attack can carry the weight of the offense. Jalen Hurts has been much more efficient as a low-volume passer. Averaging 21.5 attempts over his last eight games, he’s produced 20 total touchdowns, two giveaways, and a 114.1 passer rating. Averaging 33 attempts over his first four games, he logged six total touchdowns, seven giveaways, and an 85.7 passer rating.
How will the loss of Brandon Graham affect how the Eagles defend against NFL teams or the Carolina Panthers?
Losing BG really hurts. In addition to being a great leader, he was having a strong season. And this despite the fact he’s 36 and might retire after 2024. But BG is still around the team to provide great vibes and energy. So, that part is still there.
And the Eagles were able to have on-field success with him against the Baltimore Ravens last weekend. The Eagles did well to disrupt Lamar Jackson and limit Derrick Henry.
The Eagles utilized much more five-man fronts in Baltimore, so, we’ll see if they go that route again here to try to especially limit the damage the Panthers can do on the ground.
They also essentially shortened their normal four-man edge rusher rotation down to three players: Nolan Smith, Josh Sweat, and Jalyx Hunt. One would think they’ll look to add ex-Panther Charles Harris to that group sooner than later. Harris was active in Week 13 but he did not play a snap; he’s apparently still adjusting to a new system.
The Eagles have the third best defense in the NFL, buoyed by the third best passing defense and the seventh best rushing defense. Bryce Young is just getting his feet under him in the NFL, his redemption tour has been plagued by drops on perfectly placed balls, and we really need to him to work out so that Panthers fans don’t have to spend another five plus years in quarterback purgatory. Basically, I’m asking if the Eagles can just phone it in for one week and then blame us as a classic trap game when asked what happened?
Fair question!
But, unfortunately, not the case.
If the Panthers were an out of conference opponent, the Eagles might be able to afford to lose this game.
The pursuit of the No. 1 seed might require them winning out, though. And even then, they still need help with the Detroit Lions losing and the Minnesota Vikings not winning out.
I’m really interested to see how Young looks in this one. While he’s been better recently, none of those games were on the road. And I see that his home/away splits seems significant:
Home: 4-8 record, 82.7 passer rating
Road: 0-12 record, 63.9 passer rating
But perhaps he’s due?
If Young DOES end up having success against the Eagles’ defense, well, that could be a great sign for his trajectory. In addition to the numbers you highlighted, I’ll also point out the Eagles are allowing just 13.6 offensive points per game since returning from their Week 5 bye. And if you take out three obvious garbage time TDs over the last three weeks, that number goes down to 10.9 offensive points per game.
All jokes aside, the Panthers have rightly not been favored to win a game in a long time. If you google “when was the last time the Panthers were favored to win a game” the top results are all articles about the 2015 Super Bowl. Still, the team has won a handful of games against the odds. What would have to happen on Sunday for the Eagles to lose to the Panthers?
I absolutely believe the Eagles CAN lose this game. I don’t think it *will* happen but I’m not going to be arrogant enough to say it’s impossible.
Potential concerns that come to mind:
* The most obvious: the Eagles take the Panthers lightly and this ends up being a “trap game” for the Birds.
* The Eagles have some bad turnover luck. Hurts has been doing a really good job of not putting the ball in harm’s way … but maybe there are some bad bounces in store.
* Dave Canales comes from Tampa. Todd Bowles has really had Hurts’ number whenever the Eagles play the Buccaneers. Canales might have some insight on what Bowles has been able to do to limit Hurts.
* Bryce Young was born in the Philly area and still has family/friends in the region. He could be especially motivated to deliver his first career road win in front of his supporters who’ll likely be at the game.
* Barkley and Jalen Carter, two of the team’s best players, have been used a lot this season. Maybe they could show signs of being a bit worn down.
* The Eagles are dealing with some injuries. Top tight end Dallas Goedert will be out. Two of their top four safeties — including starter Reed Blankenship — might not play. The Eagles are one more safety injury away from relying on Avonte Maddox, who’s really struggled whenever he’s been on the field this season.
* The Eagles’ home field advantage might not be as massive as Eagles fans would hope it would be. The Eagles haven’t beaten a team in Philly by more than one possession all season long.