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As Carolina’s fake general manager, here’s what I would do in the draft and with the head coach.
For the purposes of this two-part column, I’m the general manager of the Carolina Panthers. I will be guiding the franchise through 2022 roster moves, free agency, and the draft. You can read Part 1 here.
Now, I just want to be transparent and set expectations up front: I’m an educated football fan, not an NFL insider who knows everything about salary cap management, nor do I have comprehensive insights on every college prospect or NFL free agent. There are just way too many variables and details in running an NFL team to account for everything in a column like this. I’m putting myself out there a bit doing something this comprehensive, but I’m giving it my best shot.
My overall goal for 2022 is to make a playoff push in a wide-open NFC South, play out Sam Darnold’s $18.9 million contract, and acquire more picks in 2023. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an 8-9 type record in 2022 (give or take a couple of games), but we’ll exit the season with a clear plan in place to make a splash in 2023.
Here we go with Part 2:
The 2022 draft
With free agency behind us, it’s now time to milk the draft for all it’s worth. As the Benevolent Dictator of Trade Down Island I’ve always advocated smartly trading down in the first round to gather additional valuable trade assets. You can read TDI’s Glorious Constitution here.
The Panthers are in about as bad of shape as possible for a rebuilding team when it comes to the draft. Instead of stockpiling draft picks to build their roster with young, talented, cap-friendly players, Carolina enters this year’s draft lacking second and third round picks. The Panthers draft assets are No. 6 (first round), No. 105 (fourth), No. 143 (fifth), No. 148 (fifth), No. 200 (sixth), No. 251 (seventh).
After starting Brady Christensen at left tackle I would trade down from No. 6 and acquire additional first round picks in 2023. I’m going to base the 2023 picks I can get by trading down on recent trades that happened in the real world.
From No. 6 to No. 12: First, I would trade back from No. 6 to No. 12 (or thereabouts) and acquire an additional 2023 first round pick. The Eagles did exactly that in 2021 (trading No. 6 for No. 12 plus a first rounder in 2022 which became No. 15) while also flipping picks to move up 33 spots later in the draft, so it can happen.
From No. 12 to No. 25: Second, I would trade back a second time from No. 12 to No. 25-ish for another late first round pick in 2023. The Saints did this in 2018 (from No. 14 to No. 27) and Houston did the same in 2017 (from No. 12 to No. 25) while acquiring first round picks the next year. Teams with late-round picks in 2022 will likely also have late round-picks in 2023, so let’s assume I acquire the No. 22 pick in the 2023 draft in this transaction.
When all the wheeling and dealing is done, I now have the No. 25 pick in 2022 along with the rest of the Panthers current five selections this year, but I also picked up the No. 15 and No. 22 picks in 2023.
The 2022 draft
Using Pro Football Focus’ mock draft simulator, here’s how my draft turned out after sliding back from No. 6 to No. 25. (Note: PFF’s draft picks for the Panthers were off by a couple of spots later in the draft, but it should have a negligible impact on the quality of the talent available):
1-25: Keynon Green, G, Texas A&M. He should be a Day 1 starter.
4-105: Kellen Diesch, LT, Arizona State. Good depth behind Brady Christensen.
5-142: D’Marco Jackson, LB, App State. Additional depth at linebacker.
5-147: Alec Lindstrom, C, Boston College. Depth at both center and guard.
6-199: Yusuf Corker, FS, Kentucky. Depth for a somewhat thin group of free safeties.
7-220: Jack Coan, QB, Notre Dame. Scratching a lottery ticket at the biggest position of need, hoping that in time he can at least be better than PJ Walker.
The final roster
Here’s what the 2022 rebuilt roster looks like including obscure players on reserve/future contracts next year per Spotrac.
Offense
QB: Sam Darnold; Depth: PJ Walker, Jack Coan
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard; Depth: Spencer Brown
WR: DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall, Shi Smith; Depth: C.J. Saunders, Aaron Parker
TE: Tommy Tremble, and also sign a veteran free agent at 1-year, $1.2 million; Depth: Colin Thompson, Giovanni Ricci, Stephen Sullivan
OL Starters: LT Brady Christensen, LG Alex Cappa (or equivalent FA), C Pat Elflein, RG Kenyon Green (rookie), RT Taylor Moton
OL Depth: OT Kellen Diesch (rookie), OT Aaron Monteiro, OT Austen Pleasants, OT/G Dennis Daley, G Michael Jordan, G Deonte Brown, G Mike Horton, C Sam Tecklenburg, C Alec Lindstrom (rookie)
Defense
DT: Derrick Brown, DaQuan Jones, Bravvion Roy, Daviyon Nixon; Depth: Phil Hoskins, Jacob Tuioti-Mariner
DE: Brian Burns, Haason Reddick, Yetur Gross-Matos, Marquis Haynes; Depth: Darryl Johnson, Austin Larkin
LB: Shaq Thomspon, Kwon Alexander (or equivalent FA), Frankie Luvu; Depth: Jermaine Carter Jr., Kamal Martin, Azur Kamara, D’Marco Jackson (rookie)
CB: Jaycee Horn, A.J. Bouye, C.J. Henderson, Keith Taylor, and also sign a veteran free agent at 1-year, $1.2 million; Depth: Troy Pride Jr., Stantley Thomas-Oliver III, Madre Harper
S: Jeremy Chinn, Myles Hartsfield, Kenny Robinson, Juston Burris, Sam Franklin, and also sign a veteran free agent at 1-year, $1.2 million; Depth: Yusuf Corker (rookie)
Finding a new head coach and the role of the general manager
The other reason I’d trade down in 2022 and hoard picks in 2023 is to make the Panthers a more desirable location for the team’s next head coach. Yes, I’d let Matt Rhule go late in the 2022 season unless the Panthers are clearly in playoff position because of his outstanding coaching, which is technically possible but not likely.
Here’s my pitch to the next great head coach: “We’re already a fringe playoff team in a wide-open division where every team is in flux. We’re moving on from Sam Darnold. We have three first round picks in 2023 and we are either going to draft or trade for our long-term quarterback.”
I would also let go of Matt Rhule to assert my independence as general manager for all roster decisions. It’s generally understood that Rhule has heavy sway over free agent and draft decisions, which undermines the role of the general manager. I would tell owner David Tepper that going forward I own the roster. Period. The new head coach needs to understand this, too.
Of course I’ll be collaborative and build a relationship of trust with the new head coach but we need to check and balance each other. The coach needs a deep roster with talented players that can win games week-in and week-out. As general manager I need to look longer term. I need to give the coach talent to be competitive every year, but I also need to maintain draft assets and salary cap flexibility to build for the future.
The 2025 Super Bowl
If Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy and Sam Darnold is at least a little better in 2022 than he was in 2021, this could be something like an 8-9 season.
The goal for 2023 then becomes landing a franchise quarterback. There’s nothing more important. The Panthers won’t be contenders until they have an above-average quarterback, so waiting until after 2023 just delays the rebuild. With my trade down strategy in 2022 we now have three first round picks in 2023 to either draft or trade for a quarterback. I’ll estimate those picks as No. 13 (Carolina’s own pick after going 8-9 in 2022), No. 15 (trading from No. 6 to No. 12 in 2022), and No. 22 (trading back from No. 12 to No. 25 in 2022).
My preference would be to draft a quarterback in 2023 even if it means trading up in the first round with some of the additional picks we acquired. There’s always inherent risk in drafting a quarterback, but going that route frees up millions of dollars in cap space during his rookie contract if he pans out versus signing a veteran at $30 million-plus per year.
And, no, I’m not trading for Deshaun Watson.
This reworked Panthers team should contend for a playoff spot in 2022, integrate a rookie quarterback in 2023 with a solid infrastructure around him, make noise in the playoffs in 2024, and win the Super Bowl in 2025.
You’re welcome, Panthers fans.