There are five games left in the 2025 NFL season, and if you’re just looking at the odds, it might seem like the Coach of the Year race is already decided. Mike Vrabel and the New England Patriots are cruising at 11-2, with Drake Maye playing like an MVP. Ben Johnson and the Bears aren’t far behind at 9-3, completely changing the look and feel of Chicago.
On paper, it seems like a two-man race. But here’s the thing: there’s a dark-horse candidate who deserves serious consideration: Dave Canales of the Carolina Panthers.
Context Matters: Canales Inherited the NFL’s Toughest Situation
The Panthers are 7-6 heading into their bye week, and most would say that’s not enough to be in the Coach of the Year conversation. But this award isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about what a coach does with what they’ve been given. And what Canales inherited was messy. A mismanaged roster, a mismatched coaching staff, no clear identity, and a No. 1 overall pick that many had already written off. On top of that, Panthers owner David Tepper was ranked the worst among NFL owners in the NFLPA survey, highlighting the uphill battle Canales faced from the top down.
Carolina hadn’t reached seven wins since the 2022 season, when Matt Rhule was fired midyear, and Steve Wilks stepped in on an interim basis. Wilks did a solid job keeping things afloat, but he couldn’t get the team to the playoffs. Few expected Canales to turn things around this quickly. Yet here they are.
Carolina Is Winning Without Talent, Stability, or Favorable Conditions
To tell the truth, Canales hasn’t had the advantages that Vrabel or Johnson enjoy. The roster is one of the least talented in the league, and the biggest offensive addition was a one-year, $3 million deal for Rico Dowdle. On paper, the team’s offensive metrics tell the story: total offense ranks 23rd in the league, points per game sit at 28th, passing yards per game are 26th, and yards per play are 26th. Third-down conversions come in at 25th, and the red-zone scoring percentage is a paltry 54.29% (28th in the NFL).
Even though the rushing game is a bright spot, ranking 10th in yards per game, it’s clear the foundation is shaky. This is a team struggling to move the ball consistently through the air and capitalize on scoring opportunities. This team didn’t get a foundation built for success. It has a coach who has put in a lot of hard work. And somehow, against all odds, they’re winning.
Signature Wins That Prove Coaching, Not Luck
The Panthers have some impressive wins and strong performances on their resume. The victory over the Cowboys was big. Not only a statement win, but a game where the running game was leaned upon. This game sparked the rise of running back Rico Dowdle as a legitimate offensive weapon.
Beating Sean McVay and the Rams was no fluke. In back-to-back weeks, Carolina forced three turnovers against both McVay’s Rams and Shanahan’s 49ers. Even though they fell to San Francisco, they were able to finish the job against the Rams. Don’t forget the midseason win over the Packers, where the Panthers’ defense forced four red-zone stands, limiting the Packers to just one touchdown on five trips.
Lastly, do not overlook the Falcons. Even at 4-8, they are a division opponent who know Carolina well, with dangerous offensive weapons and a defense ranked in the top 10 in pass defense. They were able to shut them out in the first meeting and in their home building, winning in overtime with a career-setting performance from Bryce Young. These wins and competitive efforts reflect smart game-planning, solid scheming, and a team buying into a coach who knows how to get the most out of them.
The Revival of Bryce Young Is a Coaching Masterclass
And let’s not forget Bryce Young. Canales has had him for two years, steadily developing the quarterback and nurturing the promise that made him the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Two years ago, Young looked lost, underdeveloped, and like he might never reach his potential. Last year, after struggling in the first two games with a low quarterback rating, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Canales made the difficult decision to bench him in favor of veteran Andy Dalton.
That move wasn’t a punishment, but a teaching tool. The benching was intended to help Young learn the new system, grow as a player, and develop the skills necessary to succeed at the NFL level. As the season went on, he began showing flashes of the talent that made him a No. 1 pick, eventually winning four games. This year? He’s playing confident, decisive football, hitting difficult throws in tough conditions, and taking care of the football when it matters most. It’s coaching. That’s development. That’s Canales. And it’s exactly the kind of impact that voters for Coach of the Year should pay attention to.
Why Canales Fits the True Spirit of Coach of the Year
Here’s the bottom line: The Panthers don’t have the record of New England or Chicago. They don’t have a star-studded roster, a top-tier QB, or a soft schedule. But they have something far more impressive. Canales has taken a franchise that was a mess and made it respectable — maybe even a playoff team. The national media is starting to see that as well. During the Rich Eisen show, he stated that they are no longer the Automatic W on NFL Teams’ Schedules.
Coach Canales has revived a No. 1 overall pick who many had given up on. He has beaten strong teams with a roster held together by Band-Aids. Leading the team to peak at the right time instead of collapsing.
That’s exactly what Coach of the Year is supposed to reward. That’s why Dave Canales shouldn’t just be buried deep on the odds board. The man deserves serious consideration as a dark-horse candidate for NFL Coach of the Year.
Main Image: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
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