Panthers GM Dan Morgan should be priming the pump to initiate a draft-day trade, swapping No. 8 for No. 17 with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Welcome, once again, to Trade Down Island!
Last week I demonstrated that at the macro level there’s no real difference in talent available at picks No. 8-10 when compared to those selected between No. 15-17. In fact, picks 15-17 have outperformed picks 8-10 in recent years. With that in mind I’m advocating for the Panthers to smartly trade down from No. 8 into the middle of the first round of this year’s draft.
When discussing trading down, there always needs to be a trade partner. The good news for Panthers fans is this year there is one:
The Cincinnati Bengals.
Why target the Bengals?
Cincinnati is the perfect target for Carolina GM Dan Morgan to seek a trade. The Bengals hold the No. 17 pick and don’t want to waste the primes of quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
In 2021, Cincy lost in the Super Bowl. In 2022 they went 12-4 and lost by three points in the AFC Championship game. In each of the last two seasons they have gone 9-8 but failed to make the playoffs. Their players, fans, and front office is anxious. If any team picking in the middle of the 2025 draft feels like they may be itching to “get their guy”, it’s the Bengals.
Both de facto GM Duke Tobin and head coach Zac Taylor are feeling immense pressure to win now.
That should be music to Dan Morgan’s ears.
What can the Panthers get by trading down from No. 8 to No. 17?
My go-to trade value chart is the Rich Hill model because it includes modern data in determining the value of draft picks. Here are the picks both the Panthers and the Bengals hold along with each pick’s respective value from the Rich Hill model:
Carolina – No. 8 (406), No. 57 (96), No. 74 (64), No. 111 (29), No. 114 (28), No. 140 (15), No. 146 (13), No. 163 (10), No. 230 (2)
Cincinnati – No. 17 (296), No. 49 (118), No. 81 (55), No. 119 (25), No. 153 (11), No. 193 (5)
Based on these values, here are three potential trades the Panthers and Bengals could make:
Option 1 – Gimme No. 49
In this model the Panthers focus is getting their hands on the Bengals No. 49 pick in the second round. Moving down from No. 8 to No. 17 generates 110 “points” which is close to the value of No. 49 at 118 points.
In this scenario the Panthers throw in No. 163 (fifth round) to balance out the trade. Here’s the end result:
Carolina receives: No. 17 (296 pts), No. 49 (118 pts) = 414 points
Cincinnati receives: No. 8 (406 pts), No. 163 (10 pts) = 416 points
Option 2 – Three quarters for a dollar
In this scenario the Panthers want to improve their position on the second day of the draft, acquiring the Bengals second and third round picks while Carolina throws in a host of Day 3 picks.
Carolina receives: No. 17 (296 pts), No. 49 (118 pts), No. 81 (55 pts) = 469 points
Cincinnati receives: No. 8 (406 pts), No. 111 (29 pts), No. 140 (15 pts), No. 146 (13 pts), No. 230 (2 pts) = 465 points
Yes, the Bengals would sacrifice four “points” in this scenario, but feeling the pressure to win now could motivate them to pull the trigger. If Dan Morgan could engineer this trade, it would leave the Panthers stocked with five valuable picks among the Top 81 in the draft while preserving one pick each in Rounds 4-6. .
Panthers final picks in this scenario: No. 17 (1st), No. 49 (2nd), No. 57 (2nd), No. 74 (3rd), No. 81 (3rd), No. 114 (4th), No. 163 (5th), No. 193 (6th)
Option 3 – Next year’s first round pick
Projecting what picks teams will give up in next year’s draft to acquire picks this year is an inexact science, but let’s assume Cincinnati is willing to deal their 2026 first round pick.
There aren’t very many data points in recent drafts estimating how teams value the following year’s draft picks while moving up from somewhere around No. 17 to No. 8. The most relevant case I could find was from 2021:
Dolphins receive: No. 6, No. 156
Eagles receive: No. 12, No. 123, and a 2022 first-round pick
In this scenario, using the Rich Hill model the Dolphins received 457 points in the 2021 draft while the Eagles received 370 points in 2021 – a deficit of 87 points – along with a 2022 first-round pick.
Here’s how similar math could work for the Panthers to get the Bengals 2026 first round pick:
Carolina receives: No. 17 (296 pts), No. 119 (25 pts), 2026 first-round pick = 321 points
Cincinnati receives: No. 8 (406 pts), No. 230 (2 pts) = 408 points
In this scenario the Panthers have a deficit of 87 points this year, which is the exact same deficit the Eagles incurred in 2021, while receiving the Bengals 2026 first-round pick.
So, Panthers fans, welcome to Trade Down Island!
Which of these three delicious trade scenarios would you pounce on if you were Dan Morgan?