After four weeks of the 2025 NFL season, the hot seat picture has shifted again. A couple of head coaches are now firmly in the danger zone, while others cooled their seats , at least temporarily, with wins. Here’s the updated look at the five names most likely to be the first fired according to our expert oddsmakers at SportsCasting, along with how their chances have changed since Week 2 and Week 3.
Who Will Be the First NFL Head Coach Fired in 2025?
| Coach | Team | Week 4 Odds | Week 4 Probability | Week 3 Probability | Week 2 Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Callahan | Titans | -110 | 52% | – | 5% | ▲ New in Top 5 |
| Kellen Moore | Saints | +250 | 22% | 17% | – | ▲ +5% |
| Mike McDaniel | Dolphins | +250 | 22% | 36% | 35% | ▼ -14% |
| Brian Daboll | Giants | +275 | 20% | 44% | 25% | ▼ -24% |
| Dave Canales | Panthers | +800 | 10% | 3% | 20% | ▲ +7% |
1. Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans (-110, ~52%)
Callahan is now the runaway favorite to be the first coach fired. The Titans are 0–4, the offense is at the bottom of the league in scoring and efficiency, and he already gave up playcalling to his QB coach. That is an unmistakable signal of desperation.
His Week 2 probability was just 5%, but by Week 4 it has jumped to 52%. The trend reflects both the Titans’ record and the lack of visible progress around their rookie quarterback.
Among all candidates, Callahan looks the most likely to get an in-season pink slip.
2. Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints (+250, ~22%)
Moore was a new entry at Week 3 (17%) after the Saints were blown out by Seattle. Another one-sided loss in Week 4, this time to Buffalo, pushed him higher to 22%.
The Saints are 0–4 and look undisciplined, with penalties and breakdowns mounting. As a first-year head coach, he does not have much goodwill to draw on.
While Callahan is the favorite, Moore is closing fast as the next most likely.
3. Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins (+250, ~22%)
McDaniel topped the board in Weeks 2 and 3 (35–36%) but slips down after finally getting a win over the Jets.
He is still under pressure since the Dolphins are 1–3 and loaded with talent that is underperforming, but the immediate firing chatter has cooled. His drop from 36% to 22% shows how one win can reset the short-term heat, even if the long-term questions remain.
4. Brian Daboll, New York Giants (+275, ~20%)
Daboll was the number one candidate after Week 3 at 44% but has fallen back after rookie QB Jaxson Dart delivered a win over the Chargers. That win does not erase the 0–3 start or the stagnant offense, but it bought him some time.
The problem is losing WR Malik Nabers to a season-ending ACL injury, which severely limits the offense. Daboll’s probability dropped from 44% to 20%, but he is still very much in the danger zone if New York slips back into losing.
5. Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers (+800, ~10%)
Canales looked safe after a 30–0 win in Week 3 (dropping to 3%), but Tepper’s history of impatience means no coach is ever far from trouble in Carolina.
The Panthers remain inconsistent and the relief from Week 3 did not last long. His probability bounced back up to 10% for Week 4. He is not in the same class of danger as Callahan, Moore, or Daboll, but he is back on the radar.
Other Coaches in Danger
- Kevin Stefanski (Browns): Offense continues to stall, but his defense and prior success give him some cover.
- Aaron Glenn (Jets): 0–4 in his first year. Sloppy play and poor discipline raise questions, though first-year firings are rare.
- Zac Taylor (Bengals): Two embarrassing offensive showings without Joe Burrow. His seat is warmer, but prior playoff runs keep him from the top tier.
- DeMeco Ryans (Texans): Fell out of the list after Houston picked up a win that reset his trajectory.
Who Fell Out After Week 4?
- DeMeco Ryans (Texans): Houston picked up a win and looked more stable, moving him off the hot list.
Takeaway After Week 4
Brian Callahan has separated from the pack as the clear favorite, while Kellen Moore’s seat grows hotter by the week. McDaniel and Daboll are still in the fight, but temporary wins and new quarterback wrinkles have cooled things slightly.
Canales is back in the mix, while Ryans has stabilized. The story is now concentrated on a handful of names, and unless the Titans shock everyone, Callahan looks destined to be the first pink slip of 2025.
The post Which NFL Coach Will Be Fired First in 2025? Odds Reveal Brian Callahan, Kellen Moore & Mike McDaniel On Hot Seats After Week 4 appeared first on Sportscasting | Pure Sports.